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2022 Senate · AZ

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,359 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 50%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 50 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (4.888) = -5.887
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.887| = 5.887

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81618, race ID 8919 (538 database).