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2022 Senate · CO

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,983 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.88% · Republican 41.27%

D+14.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.884 − 41.266 = 14.618
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (14.618) = -7.618
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.618| = 7.618

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81615, race ID 8922 (538 database).