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2022 Senate · FL

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,436 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 55%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.27% · Republican 57.68%

R+16.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 55 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.267 − 57.680 = -16.413
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-16.413) = 4.413
  4. Absolute miss = |4.413| = 4.413

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81613, race ID 8924 (538 database).