Skip to content

2022 Governor · WI

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,504 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.75%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.149 − 47.752 = 3.397
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (3.397) = -5.397
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.397| = 5.397

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81611, race ID 8986 (538 database).