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2022 Governor · NH

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,995 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 58%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.47% · Republican 56.98%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 58 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.472 − 56.985 = -15.513
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-15.513) = -2.487
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.487| = 2.487

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81609, race ID 8973 (538 database).