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2022 Governor · OR

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,393 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.96% · Republican 43.54%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.960 − 43.543 = 3.417
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.417) = 0.583
  4. Absolute miss = |0.583| = 0.583

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81608, race ID 8978 (538 database).