Skip to content

2022 Senate · OR

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,393 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 42%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.83% · Republican 40.92%

D+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 42 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.833 − 40.924 = 14.909
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (14.909) = -0.909
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.909| = 0.909

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81608, race ID 8944 (538 database).