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2022 Senate · NH

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 47.6%

D+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 47.6 = 1.80
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = 1.80 − (9.060) = -7.261
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.261| = 7.261

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81572, race ID 8938 (538 database).