2022 Governor · IA
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 801 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 54%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.53% · Republican 58.04%
R+18.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 54 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 39.526 − 58.042 = -18.516
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-18.516) = 1.517
- Absolute miss = |1.517| = 1.517
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81560, race ID 8964 (538 database).