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2022 Senate · IA

Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 801 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 53%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.84% · Republican 56.02%

R+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 53 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.836 − 56.015 = -12.179
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-12.179) = 0.179
  4. Absolute miss = |0.179| = 0.179

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81560, race ID 8930 (538 database).