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2022 Senate · NV

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 43.8% · Republican 49.8%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.8 − 49.8 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (0.777) = -6.777
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.777| = 6.777

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81558, race ID 8937 (538 database).