Skip to content

2022 Governor · OR

FM3 Research · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 741 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 38%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.96% · Republican 43.54%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 38 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.960 − 43.543 = 3.417
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.417) = -1.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.417| = 1.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81548, race ID 8978 (538 database).