Skip to content

2022 Senate · PA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 750 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48.3%

R+2.3

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48.3 = -2.30
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = -2.30 − (4.913) = -7.213
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.213| = 7.213

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81529, race ID 8945 (538 database).