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2022 Senate · AZ

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (4.888) = -4.887
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.887| = 4.887

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81502, race ID 8919 (538 database).