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2022 Governor · PA

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,005 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 37%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 37 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (14.771) = 1.229
  4. Absolute miss = |1.229| = 1.229

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81459, race ID 8979 (538 database).