2022 Senate · GA
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 43%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%
D+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 43 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.957) = 0.043
- Absolute miss = |0.043| = 0.043
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81458, race ID 8925 (538 database).