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2022 Governor · NY

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 818 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 42%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.70% · Republican 41.43%

D+7.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.697 − 41.429 = 7.268
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (7.268) = 4.732
  4. Absolute miss = |4.732| = 4.732

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81456, race ID 8975 (538 database).