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2022 Senate · NY

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 818 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 39%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.65% · Republican 37.67%

D+14.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 39 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.648 − 37.666 = 13.982
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (13.982) = 3.018
  4. Absolute miss = |3.018| = 3.018

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81456, race ID 8939 (538 database).