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2022 Governor · AZ

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,003 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.668) = -1.669
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.669| = 1.669

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81429, race ID 8954 (538 database).