Skip to content

2022 Senate · WA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46.4%

D+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 57.15% · Republican 42.63%

D+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46.4 = 1.60
  2. Actual margin = 57.148 − 42.630 = 14.518
  3. Signed miss = 1.60 − (14.518) = -12.918
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.918| = 12.918

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81427, race ID 8950 (538 database).