Skip to content

2022 Governor · VT

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 1,039 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 65%

R+41.0

The certified result

Democrat 23.96% · Republican 70.98%

R+47.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 65 = -41.00
  2. Actual margin = 23.963 − 70.978 = -47.015
  3. Signed miss = -41.00 − (-47.015) = 6.015
  4. Absolute miss = |6.015| = 6.015

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81417, race ID 8985 (538 database).