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2022 Governor · MI

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 44.6% · Republican 44.8%

R+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.6 − 44.8 = -0.20
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = -0.20 − (10.531) = -10.731
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.731| = 10.731

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81400, race ID 8969 (538 database).