2022 House · NM-2
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 410 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 45%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.34% · Republican 49.64%
D+0.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 50.337 − 49.636 = 0.701
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.701) = 1.299
- Absolute miss = |1.299| = 1.299
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81348, race ID 9252 (538 database).