2022 House · NM-1
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 410 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.75% · Republican 44.23%
D+11.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 55.746 − 44.234 = 11.512
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (11.512) = -5.512
- Absolute miss = |-5.512| = 5.512
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81348, race ID 9251 (538 database).