2022 Governor · NM
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 1,254 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 42%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.97% · Republican 45.59%
D+6.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 42 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.971 − 45.588 = 6.383
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (6.383) = 1.616
- Absolute miss = |1.616| = 1.616
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81348, race ID 8974 (538 database).