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2022 Senate · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 47.5%

R+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 47.5 = -2.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -2.20 − (0.957) = -3.157
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.157| = 3.157

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81338, race ID 8925 (538 database).