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2022 Governor · PA

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 1,716 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (14.771) = -4.771
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.771| = 4.771

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81335, race ID 8979 (538 database).