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2022 House · NH-2

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 573 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.80% · Republican 44.08%

D+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.801 − 44.079 = 11.722
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (11.722) = -12.723
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.723| = 12.723

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81324, race ID 9238 (538 database).