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2022 Senate · NH

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 1,098 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (9.060) = -9.061
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.061| = 9.061

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81324, race ID 8938 (538 database).