Skip to content

2022 Governor · CT

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 43%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.44% · Republican 43.08%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.437 − 43.081 = 11.356
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (11.356) = -5.356
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.356| = 5.356

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81315, race ID 8958 (538 database).