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2022 Senate · PA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 750 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 44.8% · Republican 47.5%

R+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.8 − 47.5 = -2.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = -2.70 − (4.913) = -7.613
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.613| = 7.613

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81313, race ID 8945 (538 database).