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2022 Senate · GA

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 946 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 43.6% · Republican 47%

R+3.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.6 − 47 = -3.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -3.40 − (0.957) = -4.357
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.357| = 4.357

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81284, race ID 8925 (538 database).