Skip to content

2022 Governor · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.2% · Republican 46.7%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.2 − 46.7 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (0.668) = -3.169
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.169| = 3.169

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81246, race ID 8954 (538 database).