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2022 Senate · NH

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 47.1%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 47.1 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (9.060) = -8.561
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.561| = 8.561

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81224, race ID 8938 (538 database).