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2022 Governor · NV

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 42.8% · Republican 48.5%

R+5.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.8 − 48.5 = -5.70
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -5.70 − (-1.510) = -4.190
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.190| = 4.190

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81203, race ID 8972 (538 database).