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2022 Senate · NV

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Text

The poll said

Democrat 46.3% · Republican 48.2%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.3 − 48.2 = -1.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = -1.90 − (0.777) = -2.677
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.677| = 2.677

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81203, race ID 8937 (538 database).