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2022 Governor · AZ

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,111 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 48.6%

R+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 48.6 = -3.30
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = -3.30 − (0.668) = -3.969
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.969| = 3.969

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81188, race ID 8954 (538 database).