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2022 Governor · NY

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 1,056 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.70% · Republican 41.43%

D+7.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.697 − 41.429 = 7.268
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (7.268) = -8.268
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.268| = 8.268

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81184, race ID 8975 (538 database).