2002 House · UT-2
Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 43%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.43% · Republican 48.69%
D+0.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 43 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 49.427 − 48.694 = 0.733
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.733) = 0.268
- Absolute miss = |0.268| = 0.268
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74318, race ID 3118 (538 database).