2006 House · GA-12
InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 442 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 39%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.30% · Republican 49.70%
D+0.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 39 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 50.303 − 49.697 = 0.606
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.606) = 2.393
- Absolute miss = |2.393| = 2.393
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74036, race ID 3712 (538 database).