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2006 House · FL-22

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 442 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 42%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.88% · Republican 47.13%

D+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 42 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.883 − 47.126 = 3.757
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (3.757) = -4.757
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.757| = 4.757

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74033, race ID 3697 (538 database).