Skip to content

2020 Senate · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2021-01-03 (2 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 48.7%

R+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 48.7 = -0.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = -0.10 − (1.226) = -1.325
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.325| = 1.325

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73992, race ID 8737 (538 database).