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2020 Senate · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2021-01-03 (2 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 49.2%

R+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 49.2 = -0.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = -0.50 − (2.080) = -2.580
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.580| = 2.580

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73992, race ID 7781 (538 database).