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2020 Senate · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2020-12-21 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.5% · Republican 47.3%

D+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.5 − 47.3 = 1.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = 1.20 − (2.080) = -0.880
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.880| = 0.880

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73886, race ID 7781 (538 database).