2010 House · PA-12
Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2010-04-28 (20 days before the election) · 406 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 41%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.64% · Republican 44.99%
D+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 41 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 52.641 − 44.990 = 7.651
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (7.651) = -5.651
- Absolute miss = |-5.651| = 5.651
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73684, race ID 1798 (538 database).