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2020 Senate · MN

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,259 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 44%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%

D+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 44 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (5.239) = 4.762
  4. Absolute miss = |4.762| = 4.762

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72740, race ID 6281 (538 database).