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2020 President · MN

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,259 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.40% · Republican 45.28%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.395 − 45.285 = 7.110
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.110) = 0.890
  4. Absolute miss = |0.890| = 0.890

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72740, race ID 6234 (538 database).