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2020 Senate · SC

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 880 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.17% · Republican 54.44%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.166 − 54.437 = -10.271
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-10.271) = 7.270
  4. Absolute miss = |7.270| = 7.270

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72724, race ID 6292 (538 database).