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2020 President · NV

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,442 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.057 − 47.666 = 2.391
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.391) = 4.609
  4. Absolute miss = |4.609| = 4.609

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72720, race ID 6244 (538 database).