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2020 President · national

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 914 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (4.396) = 2.604
  4. Absolute miss = |2.604| = 2.604

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72717, race ID 6210 (538 database).